BLOG POST
Shipping Trends 2026: The Mid-Year State of the Shipping Industry
Reading Time: 11 minutes
Six months into 2026, the logistics industry continues evolving faster than many businesses expected. Our original 2026 Shipping Report identified several trends likely to reshape transportation and supply chains this year, including tightening freight capacity, nearshoring growth, tariff uncertainty, rising parcel costs and increasing AI adoption.
Since then, new market data, regulatory developments and industry reporting have reinforced many of those predictions while also introducing new operational challenges for shippers. Here's an update on the major logistics trends we included in our original report and how they continue shaping shipping and supply chain operations moving further into 2026.
Freight Market Update: LTL and Truckload Showing Signs of Recovery in 2026
The freight market has experienced an unusually volatile recovery period following the COVID-19 pandemic, but new industry discussions suggest conditions may finally be stabilizing. WWEX Group leadership has pointed to improving manufacturing activity, steady consumer spending and tightening truckload capacity as signs the market may be returning to a more traditional freight cycle moving further into 2026.
LTL update: Higher truckload costs are pushing freight into LTL networks
According to Mike Grayson, CRO & Executive Vice President at WWEX Group, the LTL market is beginning to benefit from rising truckload pricing and tightening capacity conditions. As full truckload costs increase, many shippers are moving freight downstream into LTL and volume shipping options to reduce transportation expenses.
Grayson noted that publicly traded LTL carriers are already reporting increased shipment weights and stronger volumes, suggesting freight that would traditionally move through truckload networks is increasingly shifting into LTL channels. He described the current environment as a "rising tide lifts all boats" situation where tightening truckload conditions are also creating opportunities across the LTL sector.
"We are starting to see some green shoots of some normalcy returning back to the freight cycle and the freight markets."
— Mike Grayson, CRO & Executive Vice President at WWEX Group
Full truckload update: Capacity tightening continues
Truckload capacity is showing signs of tightening after a historically soft market over the previous two years.
JJ Lewis, SVP of Truckload at WWEX Group, explained that the truckload market appears to be in a freight recovery cycle after showing early signs of improvement during peak season last year. One of the clearest indicators has been rising tender rejection rates, which climbed from roughly 3% to 5% during much of 2023 through 2025 to approximately 13% to 14% in recent months.
Higher rejection rates typically indicate tighter capacity and increased spot-market opportunities as carriers reject contracted freight in favor of higher-paying loads. Lewis also noted that enterprise RFPs and mini-bids have allowed pricing to reset higher across the market as carriers and brokers continue responding to changing freight conditions.
"We're about seven to eight months into a full truckload recovery."
— JJ Lewis, SVP of Truckload at WWEX Group
The CDL Crackdown Threat Still Looms Over Truckload Capacity
Concerns surrounding non-domiciled CDL enforcement were already a major theme in our original 2026 Shipping Report, and uncertainty has only intensified since January. New FMCSA guidance, court rulings and enforcement actions have continued reshaping the conversation around truckload labor availability and long-term capacity planning. While the full impact remains unclear, fleets continue monitoring the situation closely as tighter enforcement could create additional driver pressure if freight demand strengthens later in 2026.
Timeline: Major non-domiciled CDL events so far in 2026
February 13, 2026 — FMCSA finalizes non-domiciled CDL rule
FMCSA finalized its non-domiciled CDL rule, tightening eligibility requirements and strengthening driver-verification standards for non-domiciled CDL holders. The agency said the rule was intended to restore integrity to the CDL system.
February 18, 2026 — FMCSA releases additional enforcement guidance
FMCSA issued expanded FAQs clarifying lawful-presence verification, documentation requirements and compliance procedures for states issuing non-domiciled CDLs ahead of the March implementation deadline.
March 16, 2026 — New FMCSA rule takes effect nationwide
The FMCSA final rule officially became effective, tightening renewal, transfer and issuance requirements for non-domiciled CDL holders while increasing verification standards for state licensing agencies.
May 7, 2026 — Appeals court allows enforcement to continue
Trucking Dive reported that a federal appeals court rejected efforts to temporarily block the FMCSA rule, allowing enforcement to continue while broader legal challenges remain unresolved.
In related legal news
May 14, 2026 — Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled unanimously in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC that freight brokers can face state negligence claims related to carrier selection. FreightWaves reported the decision could increase scrutiny around broker compliance practices, carrier vetting procedures and overall freight-network risk management moving further into 2026. The ruling also raised broader industry concerns about potential legal exposure for brokers and how companies evaluate carrier safety and qualification standards. Some industry observers also warn the decision could contribute to higher insurance costs, stricter carrier onboarding requirements and additional compliance pressure across freight networks. Over time, those factors could further tighten available capacity as brokers and carriers adopt more conservative risk-management practices.
How the 2026 Midterm Elections Could Affect Shippers
The 2026 midterm elections could influence trade policy, tariff relief, transportation funding and domestic manufacturing priorities — all of which affect shippers through landed costs, sourcing decisions and freight flows. Transportation funding is especially time-sensitive because the Highway Trust Fund expires Sept. 30, 2026. Recent policy analysis and news coverage also offer insight into what shippers could face depending on how congressional control shifts after the midterms.
| Policy area | Republican-controlled Congress | Democratic-controlled Congress |
| Trade & tariffs | Likely to support stronger tariff enforcement and America First trade policies | More pressure for tariff relief and narrower trade restrictions |
| Transportation funding | Infrastructure spending could face tighter fiscal scrutiny | Likely to prioritize infrastructure and transportation funding negotiations |
| Domestic manufacturing | Continued emphasis on reshoring and reducing China dependence | Continued manufacturing support alongside tariff-cost concerns |
| Shipper planning impact | Prepare for continued tariffs, sourcing shifts and domestic-production incentives | Prepare for possible tariff-policy changes and evolving import strategies |
Sources: USTR 2026 Trade Policy Agenda, NOTUS tariff coverage, ML Strategies transportation outlook, Aprio trade-policy analysis, Senate Finance Committee tariff refund legislation.
For shippers, the biggest challenge may not be which party gains control — but how quickly trade and transportation policy could shift afterward. Continued uncertainty surrounding tariffs, regulation and transportation funding is already influencing sourcing decisions, inventory planning and long-term logistics strategy across multiple industries.
AI Adoption Is Moving From Testing to Measurable Business Value
Industry leaders increasingly view AI in logistics as a long-term operational advantage capable of improving visibility, automation and decision-making across transportation networks. At the start of 2026, many logistics companies were still experimenting with AI through isolated pilot programs and workflow automation tools. Six months later, the conversation has shifted from experimentation to execution.
According to SupplyChain247's 2026 AI adoption report, logistics providers are increasingly prioritizing AI investments focused on automation, operational efficiency and faster decision-making across supply chain operations. Recent industry research and news coverage increasingly point to AI as one of the most transformative forces reshaping logistics operations in the second half of 2026.
SupplyChainBrain: How AI in logistics can both defend and endanger
AI is becoming both a cybersecurity tool and a growing risk in logistics operations. The article highlights how AI can strengthen threat detection while simultaneously creating new attack surfaces across connected supply chains.
FreightWaves: project44 launches Autopilot, an AI-enabled logistics operating system
project44 introduced Autopilot, a no-code AI logistics platform designed to automate freight procurement, exception management and carrier onboarding while improving operational efficiency and visibility across logistics workflows.
McKinsey: AI in logistics — the future of freight
McKinsey explores how AI is reshaping freight logistics through predictive decision-making, automation and visibility improvements while emphasizing that companies still need strong data governance, operational discipline and organizational readiness to scale AI effectively.
Bipartisan Policy Center: Moving parts — how physical AI is reshaping the logistics sector
The report examines how robotics, autonomous systems and "physical AI" are transforming warehousing, transportation and fulfillment operations while raising new workforce, infrastructure and regulatory challenges across logistics networks.
Transport Topics: How AI is transforming logistics operations
Transport Topics outlines how logistics companies are using AI to improve routing, automate manual workflows, enhance visibility and manage disruptions faster as operational expectations rise across transportation and supply chain networks.
SupplyChainBrain: The importance of human-centric AI in supply chain and logistics
The article argues that successful AI adoption in logistics still depends heavily on human oversight, emphasizing collaboration between employees and AI systems rather than fully replacing operational decision-making with automation.
Mexico's Logistics Expansion Is Accelerating Faster Than Expected
Nearshoring was already a major theme in our original 2026 Shipping Report, but new trade data and cross-border shipping activity continue reinforcing Mexico's growing role in regional manufacturing and freight networks.
Recent reporting from Mexico News Daily, U.S. Census trade data and FreightWaves suggests U.S.-Mexico trade momentum is not slowing down. New evidence also supports several predictions from our original report, including rising cross-border shipping demand, tightening border capacity and increasing reliance on Mexico as a manufacturing and logistics hub.
Mexico nearshoring FAQ
Supply Chain Trends 2026: Resilience Is No Longer a Differentiator — It's the Baseline
The first half of 2026 reinforced a hard reality for supply chains: disruption is no longer occasional. From tariffs and geopolitical instability to tightening capacity and freight volatility, companies continue facing pressure across transportation networks. As a result, supply chain resilience is no longer just a competitive advantage — it is becoming a baseline requirement for maintaining flexibility and continuity.
The biggest supply chain disruptions so far in 2026
- Tariff uncertainty and court challenges intensified importer risk
Ongoing legal disputes surrounding U.S. tariff authority created uncertainty around duties, sourcing costs and long-term trade planning for importers and global supply chains. Recent legal analysis notes the Court of International Trade found the 10% tariffs likely unlawful, while relief was limited and appeals remain likely. - Red Sea and Middle East instability continued disrupting global shipping
Ongoing Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea continued disrupting global shipping routes in 2026, forcing many carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times and contributing to freight volatility. At the same time, the expanding conflict involving Iran and heightened instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most critical oil and maritime chokepoints — continued affecting energy markets, maritime shipping costs and transportation planning. - Cross-border freight demand tightened U.S.-Mexico capacity
U.S.-Mexico trade remained elevated in early 2026, with $147 billion in two-way trade through the first two months of the year. FreightWaves reporting also highlighted tightening border capacity as trade volumes remained strong. - Cybersecurity risks stayed high across supply chains
As supply chains become more connected and technology-driven, cybersecurity threats continue creating operational risk across transportation and logistics networks. ISC2's 2026 cybersecurity predictions identified supply chain security and third-party vulnerabilities as major concerns as companies rely more heavily on interconnected digital systems. - Cargo theft and freight fraud continued escalating across supply chains
Cargo theft and freight fraud continued evolving into major operational threats for transportation and logistics providers in 2026. CargoNet's Q1 2026 theft trends reported more than $131 million in cargo losses across the United States and Canada, while FBI and TIA advisories warned about increasingly sophisticated fraud schemes involving spoofed identities, stolen MC numbers and fake brokers. The growing shift toward digitally enabled freight fraud is also making cargo crime more difficult to detect across modern transportation networks.
Tariff Uncertainty Has Intensified for Importers and Supply Chains
The ongoing tariff impact on shipping continues affecting sourcing decisions, landed costs and long-term supply chain planning throughout 2026. Tariff instability has evolved rapidly since the start of 2026, shifting from a policy concern into a broader operational challenge for importers and global supply chains.
A growing series of court rulings, appeals and legal disputes tied to tariff authority has left many businesses uncertain about future duties and long-term sourcing strategy. As a result, importers are increasingly operating in an environment where tariff enforcement remains active while the legal authority behind those tariffs continues to be challenged through the courts.
Trump gets temporary reprieve
The latest development came in May when a federal appeals court temporarily allowed the Trump administration to continue collecting a 10% global tariff while legal challenges move forward, as reported in the Wall Street Journal. The ruling followed a decision by the U.S. Court of International Trade that found the tariffs likely exceeded the administration's authority under the Trade Act. However, the trade court limited immediate relief to only a small group of plaintiffs, meaning most importers continue paying duties while the appeals process unfolds.
Majority still concerned
That volatility is creating ripple effects throughout global supply chains. Thomson Reuters' 2026 Global Trade Report found that 72% of trade professionals identified U.S. tariff volatility as the most impactful regulatory change affecting global trade this year. The report also noted that companies are increasingly reshuffling supplier relationships and reevaluating sourcing strategies as tariff-driven disruption continues reshaping procurement and logistics decisions.
Supply chain impact
For many businesses, the uncertainty itself has become one of the biggest operational risks. Institute for Supply Management recently warned that ongoing tariff disputes may force companies to revisit duty calculations, sourcing decisions and long-term contracting strategies as legal challenges and policy changes continue evolving throughout 2026.
Aside from GRIs, Shippers Are Seeing Fuel Surcharge Increases in 2026
Rising parcel shipping costs remain a major concern for businesses trying to manage transportation budgets in an increasingly volatile freight environment. One of the most accurate predictions from our original 2026 Shipping Report was that parcel pricing pressure would continue throughout the year.
General rate increases and other pricing adjustments continued affecting transportation budgets as shippers moved further into 2026. But beyond traditional GRIs, new reporting from The Wall Street Journal suggests fuel surcharges have become another major source of rising parcel costs.
What the data saysShipMatrix data cited by The Wall Street Journal showed fuel surcharges rising sharply over the past several years, increasing from 6.3% of total shipping costs in 2020 to nearly 20% in 2025. The Journal also reported that fuel surcharges climbed even higher in early March 2026, accounting for as much as 26% of total parcel shipping costs. |
The reasonRising diesel prices, higher transportation energy costs and ongoing instability in the Middle East continued pressuring parcel networks throughout early 2026. As fuel costs increased, carriers responded by raising fuel surcharges across shipping networks, contributing to higher transportation expenses for businesses and shippers. |
What you can doAs fuel-related pricing pressure continues affecting parcel shipping costs, businesses may need to monitor surcharge exposure more closely moving further into 2026. Companies may also evaluate carrier diversification strategies, shipment optimization efforts and parcel-spend visibility tools to better manage rising transportation expenses. |
How Worldwide Express Can Help Shippers Navigate 2026
From tightening freight capacity and tariff uncertainty to rising parcel costs and supply chain disruption, Worldwide Express helps businesses adapt to changing market conditions with flexible shipping solutions, carrier expertise and scalable logistics support.
LTL and truckload market recovery: As freight capacity tightens and pricing volatility increases, Worldwide Express helps shippers secure competitive rates, improve mode selection and access scalable carrier capacity across both LTL and truckload networks.
CDL enforcement and truckload uncertainty: Ongoing CDL enforcement changes could tighten driver availability and disrupt truckload capacity. Worldwide Express helps businesses maintain flexibility through diversified carrier networks, real-time market visibility and proactive transportation planning. The company also maintains rigorous carrier onboarding, vetting and compliance standards designed to help reduce risk exposure while ensuring access to qualified and compliant carrier capacity.
Midterm election and tariff uncertainty: Shifting trade policy and tariff uncertainty continue complicating sourcing and transportation decisions. Worldwide Express helps shippers adapt through flexible logistics strategies, multimodal shipping solutions and supply chain planning support.
AI adoption in logistics: As AI reshapes transportation operations, Worldwide Express helps businesses leverage technology-driven visibility, automation and data insights while still providing hands-on logistics expertise and human support across complex shipping networks.
Nearshoring and cross-border logistics growth: Rising U.S.-Mexico trade volumes are increasing cross-border complexity and capacity pressure. Worldwide Express helps businesses manage nearshoring logistics through cross-border expertise, carrier access and transportation visibility solutions.
Supply chain disruption and resilience: From geopolitical instability to cybersecurity threats and cargo fraud, supply chain disruption remains elevated in 2026. Worldwide Express helps businesses strengthen resilience through flexible carrier options, shipment visibility and proactive risk management strategies.
Tariff uncertainty and supply chain disruption: Ongoing tariff disputes and court challenges continue affecting landed costs, sourcing decisions and import planning. Worldwide Express helps businesses navigate tariff-related supply chain challenges through flexible shipping strategies, multimodal solutions and supply chain planning support.
Parcel shipping cost increases and fuel surcharges: Rising fuel surcharges and parcel pricing pressure continue affecting transportation budgets. Worldwide Express helps businesses control parcel shipping costs through carrier diversification, spend analysis and customized shipping optimization strategies.
Worldwide Express Can Help You Navigate Any Shipping Challenge
The first half of 2026 reinforced just how quickly logistics conditions can change. From tightening freight capacity and tariff uncertainty to rising parcel costs, nearshoring growth and increasing supply chain disruption, shippers continue operating in a highly dynamic environment where flexibility, visibility and reliable transportation partnerships remain critical.
As one of the nation's leading third-party logistics providers, Worldwide Express helps businesses navigate changing market conditions with scalable parcel, LTL and truckload solutions backed by carrier expertise, technology-driven visibility and nationwide transportation capacity. Whether businesses are managing rising shipping costs, adapting to supply chain disruption or preparing for future market shifts, Worldwide Express helps shippers build more flexible and resilient transportation strategies for the rest of 2026 and beyond.
Ready to talk? Reach out for a free consultation today.



